Revised Fourth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan

July 1998   |   document 98-22

(also see 6th and 5th Power Plans)

Background

In March 1996, the Northwest Power Planning Council released for public comment the Draft Fourth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan. Comment on that draft was held open through 1996, while the Comprehensive Review of the Northwest Energy System was conducted. This Addendum to the draft power plan updates information that has changed since the release of the draft plan, incorporates recommendations from the Comprehensive Review Steering Committee and suggests ways to implement those recommendations. The Council will take public comment on this Addendum through October 31, 1997. Hearings are being scheduled in all four Northwest states, and consultations on the Addendum will be held as needed.

The Draft Fourth Northwest Power Plan describes the changing electricity industry, analyzes some of the consequences of the more competitive power market that is emerging, and suggests some alternative strategies the Northwest may adopt in response to industry changes. No changes have been made to that draft; all updating and comments have been incorporated into the Addendum.

Chapter 1: Executive Summary

• The Fourth Northwest Power Plan
• The Evolving Northwest Electricity Industry
• Capturing the Benefits of Competition
• The Existing Northwest Power System
• Forecasts and Resource Trends
• Resource Issues in Competitive Markets
  • Cost-Effective Conservation
  • Renewable Resources
  • Environmental Considerations
• The Role of the Bonneville Power Administration
• The Future Role of the Northwest Power Planning Council
• Structuring the Competitive Marketplace

Chapter 2: The Evolving Northwest Electricity Industry

• 2-A. Competition in Electricity Markets
  • The Traditional Regulatory Environment
  • Regulatory Policy ? Wholesale Competition
  • Retail Competition
• 2-B. Restructuring of the Natural Gas Industry
• 2-C. Gas Turbine Technology

Chapter 3: Capturing the Benefits of  Competition

• 3-A. Benefits of Competition
• 3-B. Principles for a Competitive Electricity Market
  • Absence of Market Power
• 3-C. Characteristics of Competitive Markets
  • Risk and Reward
  • Markets are Dynamic
• 3-D. Limitations of Competitive Markets
  • Markets are Rarely Perfect
  • Efficiency Not Equity
• 3-E. The Transition Matters

Chapter 4: The Existing Northwest Power System

• 4-A. Resources Added Since 1991
• 4-B. The Hydroelectric System
  • Accommodating Fish and Power
• 4-C. Other Generating Resources
  • Coal-fired Power Plants
  • Nuclear Power Plants
  • Natural Gas-Fired Combined-Cycle Power Plants
  • Industrial Cogeneration
  • Other Renewable Resource Projects
  • Other Projects
• 4-D. Conservation
  • Fuel Choice

Chapter 5: Forecasts and Resource Trends

• 5-A. Growing Demand for Electricity
  • Economic Patterns
  • Electricity Demand Forecast
• 5-B. Natural Gas Price Forecasts
• 5-C. The Western Power Market
  • The Western Generation and Transmission System
  • West Coast Resource Availability and Price
  • Estimated Level of Reliance on the West Coast Market
• 5-D. New Generating Resource Potential
  • General Prospects for Development of New Generating Resources
• 5-E. Hydropower System Uncertainties

Chapter 6: Resource Issues in Competitive Markets

• 6-A. Cost-Effective Conservation
  • How Much Conservation has the Region Achieved?
  • How Much Remains to be Done?
  • Conservation's Benefits, Uncertainties and Risks
  • Will the Remaining Cost-Effective Conservation Be Achieved?
• Utilities and Conservation: A New Paradigm
  • Options for Conservation Development in the Long-Term
• 6-B. A Renewable Energy Strategy
  • Renewables Activities - 1991 to the Present
  • Prospects for Development of Renewable Energy Resources
• Why People Support Renewables
  • Value of Renewables Available for Development
  • Value of Accelerated Renewables Development
  • Findings Regarding a Near-Term Strategy
  • Conclusions: Justifiable Elements of a Renewable Resource Strategy
• 6-C. Environmental Considerations
  • Environmental Mitigation in Competitive Electricity Markets
  • Global Climate Change
  • Power System Cost Analysis
  • Regional Actions While Climate Change is Uncertain
• International Response to the Climate Change Issue
  • New York, 1988
  • Rio de Janeiro, 1992
  • Berlin, 1995
  • Washington, D.C.

Chapter 7: The Role of the Bonneville Power Administration

• 7-A. Alternatives for the Federal Columbia River Power System
  • Sale of Assets vs. Sale or Lease of Marketing Rights
  • Issues in Considering Alternatives
• 7-B. Consistency with the Principles, Characteristics and Limitations of Competitive Markets
  • Should Bonneville's Transmission and Generation Assets Be Separated?
  • Market Power
  • Markets, Risks and Rewards
• 7-C. Allocation of Benefits
  • The Basis of the Benefits ? the Hydropower System
  • Distribution of Regional Benefits
  • Marketing and Pricing
• 7-D. Public Purposes
• 7-E. Conclusions

Chapter 8: The Future Role of the Northwest Power Planning Council

• 8-A. Goals of the Northwest Power Act
• 8-B. The Council's Power Planning Innovations
• 8-C. The Future Role of the Council
  • Council Functions under the Northwest Power Act
  • New Roles for the Council?
  • No Role for the Council?

Links to Related Materials and Sites

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