December 2002 |
Council document 2002-20
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The Council is inviting comment on this issue paper, which will
eventually become part of the
Fifth Power Plan
currently in development.
Summary
This paper forecasts the electricity demand for a group of industrial
plants, mostly aluminum smelters, commonly referred to as the Direct
Service Industries, or DSIs. In the past, most of these plants obtained
all of their electricity supplies from the Bonneville Power
Administration.
Because the amount of electricity used by the DSIs is significant in
the Pacific Northwest, and because the cost and availability of
electricity supplies has changed dramatically since the 1980s, Northwest
aluminum smelters have struggled to remain competitive in the world
market. The Council's draft forecast includes background information on
the region's DSIs and their electricity demand; a straightforward model
of aluminum electricity demand developed by the Council to determine the
likelihood of a plant's continued operation under varying levels of
aluminum and electricity prices; and an assumption for aluminum
electricity demand through 2005.
