Energy Fifth Power Plan System Analysis Advisory Committee

System Analysis Advisory Committee

February 10, 2004 meeting
9:30 am - 1:30 pm

Northwest Power & Conservation Council
851 SW 6th Avenue, Suite 1100
Portland, Oregon

Teleconference: 1-877-848-1997 (Pass code: 319)

Agenda

Overview of methods
            Distributions
            Risk measure
            Efficient Frontier
                  ?Risk-constrained, least-cost planning?

 Presentation of candidate plan
            How the candidate plan performs under specific futures

 Models and modeling
            Construction of the efficient frontier
            Estimating the distributions
                        The meta-model:  Olivia
                        The Portfolio model: Olivia's ?daughter?
            Examination of futures
                        Description of mathematical representations
            Representation of resources
            Load/Resource balance
             Algorithms
                        Estimating hourly dispatch
                        Resource-responsive price (RRP)
                        Long-term price response:  DSIs and other industrial loads
                        Planning flexibility
                        Supply curves for conservation and for commercial use of hydro
                        Stochastic hydrogeneration based on 50-year stream flow record

Discuss next meeting date