July 2001 issue

 NWCouncil.org NeWs    July 2001 index

Power supply outlook improves for summer, but at a cost to jobs, fish and the environment; winter power reliability remains a concern

Emergency measures including industrial power curtailments, reduced water spills at dams and temporary generators are easing the Northwest’s electricity shortage, but the crisis is not over, according to the latest Council analysis.

Since 1999, the Council has been studying the Northwest and West Coast electricity supply and issuing periodic updates. The latest version of the analysis, completed in June, incorporates weather, water and power data through the middle of the month. The analysis shows that the current power supply, and the outlook for the future, is affected by a complex array of emergency and longer-term efforts. Briefly:

• Demand for power has declined significantly in recent months, but this is largely as the result of industrial cutbacks that have cost the region thousands of jobs.
• Federal dams on the Snake and Columbia rivers generated additional power in the spring by withholding water that would have been spilled to help juvenile salmon and steelhead migrate to the ocean. As a result, some reduction in the survival of fish migrating in the river — those not transported downstream in barges — was anticipated.
• Temporary generators boosted the region’s power supply, but these produce more air pollutants than other power plants and are expensive to operate.
• New natural gas-fired power plants in the Northwest will augment the West Coast power supply when they begin operating this summer and fall, but it is not clear that all of that power will stay in the Northwest.
• The Northwest has had some success with new energy conservation efforts and continued emphasis could produce much more savings.
• The region’s system of high-voltage transmission lines is stressed by high demand and the addition of new power plants.

"The crisis is not over, but the situation –at least for the summer –has improved," Council Chairman Larry Cassidy said. "The sum of these efforts is that we think the region’s power supply will be more reliable this year, and prices may be lower, but everyone should realize that much of the improved outlook comes by way of emergency actions that have cut jobs, curtailed fish operations at the dams and compromised air quality. Short-term fixes are appropriate in times of crisis, but do not provide long-term, sustainable solutions for the region, which is our ultimate goal."

"Everyone should realize that much of the improved outlook comes by way of emergency actions that have cut jobs, curtailed fish operations at the dams and compromised air quality." - Council Chair, Larry Cassidy

More than 1,900 megawatts of power, nearly enough for the cities of Portland and Seattle combined, will come online this year, and more is anticipated next year. In addition, the Bonneville Power Administration, the region’s largest power supplier, has signed agreements with some of its customers to reduce their demand for power. Many electric utilities in the region are doing the same thing.

"It is critical that Bonneville and other regional utilities have negotiated these agreements, as load reductions will help reduce the cost of power and also lower future rate increases," Cassidy said.

Cassidy noted that 2001 remains an extremely dry year and that hydropower generation in the region remains far below average. In late April, the Council recommended the Bonneville Power Administration and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers spill water at John Day, The Dalles and Bonneville dams to help salmon and steelhead migrate, as long as reliability of the region’s power supply would not be jeopardized (See related story on page 4). That is still the Council’s position, Cassidy said.

"While the improved power supply may mean that more water can be spilled for fish, the reliability of the power system is critical. Even though conditions have improved, unanticipated power plant outages or increased demand for power could change the picture. So we must continue to be judicious about how our water and power are used," Cassidy said.

The Council’s analysis suggests that the probability of a power shortfall next winter has been reduced from about 20 percent to 17 percent, but that is still more than three times the electricity industry standard.

"The region needs to continue improving energy efficiency and building the cleanest generating plants possible to meet future demand for power," Cassidy said.

• The analysis incorporates approximately 1,000 additional megawatts of load reduction across the summer months.
• The analysis includes approximately 500 megawatts of additional thermal generation across the summer and winter.
• The region should be able to meet load across the summer with some deviations from Biological Opinion hydropower operations in the late spring and early summer, absent unanticipated power plant outages.
• It should be possible to store some hydro energy this summer to improve reliability next winter.
• The probability of having insufficient electricity to meet needs next winter drops to 17 percent, or under 12 percent with additional water storage in Canada.

• New resources that do not come on line as
• anticipated.
• Extended power plant outages that were not expected.
• Expected load reductions that do not occur.
• Generating resources located in the region are not fully available to meet Northwest demands.
• Major transmission system problems.

• Increased precipitation over the rest of the year.
• More new power plants.
• More voluntary conservation.