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Contact: John Harrison, spokesman, 800-452-5161

May 25, 2001

Council analysis: Region's response to crisis improves power supply, but at a cost to employment and the environment

PORTLAND, Oregon -- Emergency measures including industrial power curtailments, reduced water spills at dams and temporary generators are easing the Northwest’s electricity shortage, but the crisis is not over, according to the latest analysis by the Northwest Power Planning Council.

Since 1999, the Council has been studying the Northwest and West Coast electricity supply and issuing periodic updates. The latest version of the analysis, which incorporates weather, water and power data through late April, shows that the current power supply, and the outlook for the future, is affected by a complex array of emergency and longer-term efforts. Briefly:

• Demand for power has declined significantly in recent months, but this is largely as the result of industrial cutbacks that have cost the region thousands of jobs.
• Federal dams on the Snake and Columbia rivers have generated additional power this spring by withholding water that would have been spilled to help juvenile salmon and steelhead migrate to the ocean. As a result, some reduction in the survival of fish migrating in the river -- those not transported downstream in barges -- is anticipated.
• Temporary generators have boosted the region’s power supply, but these produce more air pollutants than other power plants.
• New natural gas-fired power plants in the Northwest will boost the West Coast power supply when they begin operating this summer and fall, but it is not clear that all of that power will be available to meet Northwest needs.
• The Northwest has had some success with new energy conservation efforts and continued emphasis could produce much more savings..
• The region’s system of high-voltage transmission lines is stressed by high demand and the addition of new power plants.

"The crisis is not over, but the situation -- at least for the summer -- has improved," Council Chairman Larry Cassidy said. "The sum of these efforts is that we think the region’s power supply will be more reliable this year, and prices may be lower, but everyone should realize that much of the improved outlook comes by way of emergency actions that have cut jobs, curtailed fish operations at the dams, and compromised air quality. Short-term fixes are appropriate in times of crisis, but do not provide long-term, sustainable solutions for the region, which is our ultimate goal."

More than 1,900 megawatts of power, nearly enough for the cities of Portland and Seattle combined, will come online this year, and more is anticipated next year. In addition, the Bonneville Power Administration, the region’s largest power supplier, has signed agreements with some of its customers to reduce their demand for power, and more agreements are expected. Many electric utilities in the region are doing the same thing.

"It is critical that Bonneville and other regional utilities continue to negotiate these agreements, as load reductions will help reduce the cost of power and also lower future rate increases," Cassidy said.

Cassidy noted that 2001 remains an extremely dry year and that hydropower generation in the region remains far below average. In late April, the Council recommended the Bonneville Power Administration and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers spill water at John Day, The Dalles and Bonneville dams to help salmon and steelhead migrate, as long as reliability of the region’s power supply would not be jeopardized. That is still the Council’s position, Cassidy said.

"While the improved power supply may mean that more water can be spilled for fish, the reliability of the power system is critical. Even though conditions have improved, unanticipated power plant outages or increased demand for power could change the picture. So we must continue to be judicious about how our water and power are used," Cassidy said.

The Council’s analysis suggests that the probability of a power shortfall next winter has been reduced from about 20 percent to 17 percent, but that is still more than three times the electricity industry standard.

"The region needs to continue improving energy efficiency and building the cleanest generating plants possible to meet future demand for power," Cassidy said.

Here are some brief details of the latest analysis:

• The analysis incorporates approximately 1,000 additional megawatts of load reduction across the summer months.
• The analysis incorporates approximately 500 megawatts of additional thermal generation across the summer and winter.
• The region should be able to meet load across the summer with some deviations from Biological Opinion hydropower operations early in the late spring and early summer, absent unanticipated power plant outages.
• It should be possible to store some hydro energy this summer to improve reliability next winter.

• The probability of having insufficient electricity to meet needs next winter drops to 17 percent, or under 12 percent with additional water storage in Canada.
• Factors that could worsen the outlook include:
• New resources that do not come on line as anticipated;
• Extended power plant outages that were not expected;
• Expected load reductions that do not occur;
• Generating resources located in the region are not fully available to meet Northwest demands.
• Major transmission system problems.
• Factors that could improve the outlook include:
• Increased precipitation over the rest of the year.
• More new power plants.
• More voluntary conservation.

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