August 27, 2003

Although it will take time for officials to determine the cause of the recent blackout experienced by the Northeast and parts of Canada, the massive power failure brought home the need to improve the reliability of the nation's electrical system. 

There are two areas of concern regarding electricity reliability.  The first is whether or not generating capacity has kept up with demand growth; the second is whether the transmission infrastructure has been upgraded to handle increased transactions.  In a report published by the North American Electric Reliability Council in May of 2003[1] assessing the potential for problems, it identified New York City, southwestern Connecticut, and Long Island as areas of concern because of a lack of new generation and bottlenecks in the transmission system.  A report published in the IEEE Spectrum in June of 2000 indicates that demand for electricity in the United States has grown by 29 percent from 1988 to 1998, while generating capability has essentially not changed.[2] 

The report goes on to say that transmission capacity ?has remained flat in the most recent years for which data are available, yet the number of transactions involving bulk transfers of electricity over transmission grids has soared astronomically.?  According to Paul Carrier of the Department of Energy's policy office, ?the industry is becoming more dependent on operational fixes to relieve transmission congestion rather than expanding transmission capacity.? 

Despite the fact that power systems seem to be under greater stress, they all incorporate protection systems that, when working properly, will limit the spread of a blackout by isolating the area of concern.  In the case of the Northeastern outages, it appears that one or more of those protection systems failed.  

Current analysis for the Northwest indicates that the generation system is adequate, but the need for vigilance is key.  Quick and unexpected growth in the economy (leading to higher demand for electricity); new more constraining environmental laws; or other unexpected events could rapidly lead to a shortage of generation.  On the transmission side in the Northwest, the Bonneville Power Administration has begun a major construction program to upgrade its transmission system.

Are we likely to see a major blackout in the West?  Chances are very good that we won't.  Utilities on the West Coast have been operating at more conservative reserve margins ever since the 1996 blackout in the West.  While this does not guarantee that a blackout won't occur, it does give us a greater margin for error.  Is there a problem to fix in the West?  For the next couple of years the chance of a major problem appears unlikely.  However, uncertainty regarding deregulation, control of the transmission system, and Bonneville's future role may provide disincentives for new resource (or conservation) or transmission development.  The Council is currently developing its fifth regional power and conservation plan in which all of these issues will be addressed.

For a more detailed assessment of the Northeast blackout, Jerry Rust of the Northwest Power Pool will present the latest information at the Council's September 9 -11 meeting in Spokane, Washington.

[1] ?2003 Summer Assessment: Reliability of the Bulk Electric Supply in North America,? May 2003

[2] Sweet, William, ?Restructuring the Thin-stretched Grid,? IEEE Spectrum, June 2000