November 2005 Issue

Analysis of Proposed Dam Operations Would Reduce Reliability and Add Cost to Regional Power Supply

John Fazio, power system analyst for the Council, presented his analysis of the proposed dam operations sought by plaintiffs in a federal lawsuit. The proposal would increase spill and flows to aid migrating salmon and steelhead. Fazio noted that without the provision to curtail operations in a power emergency, the proposal would increase the chance the power system might not meet demand. His analysis also indicates that the net cost to the region would range from $125 million to $560 million in 2006.

Review of 2005 Adult Salmon Returns Suggests a Trend Toward Lower Runs

Cindy LeFleur and Dick Stone of the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife presented a review of the 2005 fish returns and fisheries. LeFleur recapped the forecasts for each run against the final numbers, noting her personal "grade" for how well they had forecast the runs. The biggest disappointment was the upriver spring Chinook run which came in at 106,400 instead of the forecasted 254,100. The fall Chinook returns were lower than forecast as well, prompting LeFleur to observe that we may be seeing a trend toward lower returns. See presentation [830k PDF].