Energy Power Supply Outlook

      
  
 

Power Supply Outlook Update

This is a snapshot of Northwest power supply and electricity demand. For more information, contact John Fazio.

February 2008 Summary: The region's power supply is estimated to be about 2,900 average megawatts surplus (it takes about 1,000 average megawatts to supply a city the size of Seattle). The surplus includes about 2,400 average megawatts of uncontracted regional resources and only counts hydroelectric generation based on the driest historical condition. The likelihood of a significant electricity service disruption due to a lack of resources is forecast to be very low for the next 5 years. In June of 2008, the Council will reassess the adequacy of the Northwest's power supply

 
 

Regional load: actual vs. forecasts

     
 
This graph shows how closely our predictions (blue) for power supply/needs match reality (gray). The short-term forecast and actual loads both remain below the trend forecast from the 5th power plan but the gap is closing. This graph shows the difference between actual and long-term forecast on an annual basis.
   

Columbia River runoff volume forecast

    Updated biweekly between January and July
Last updated 05-07-2008
  
Figures in million acre-feet Low Avg High
Current forecast 97 
60-year history 53 107 159
    January to July runoff at the Dalles Dam is at 91% of the 30-year average from 1971-2000.

For more narrative information, see the National Weather Service Northwest River Forecast Center. For more data including runoff history, see BPA Hydrology.

  
 

Reservoir elevations and flows

    Updated daily
 
Data for
May 12
Elevation
(ft)
Normal Full
Pool (ft)
Avg May 12 Elevation
for last 10 years (ft)
Hungry Horse 3503.4 3561.0 3523.6
Libby 2397.3 2459.0 2399.2
Grand Coulee 1228.9 1290.0 1250.0
Dworshak 1482.5 1600.0 1549.6
courtesy of U of W's DART program

 

Data for
May 12
Daily Outflow
(kcfs)
Avg May 12 Outflow
for last 10 years (kcfs)
Lower Granite 88.5 82.1
The Dalles 282.6 235.9
courtesy of U of W's DART program
    The 1st table lists elevations for major U.S. reservoirs.

The 2nd table lists river flow at key Lower Snake and Columbia dams.

 
 

New Northwest generating resources

    Updated quarterly
Last updated Apr 2008

New resources either recently online or coming online soon.
See how much Northwest power comes from hydropower vs other sources.

Project Location Type Capacity (MW) Energy (MWa) Service Date Note
Under construction
Danskin CT1 Mountain Home, ID Natural gas simple cycle gas turbine 170 As dispatched Jun 2008
Diamond Willow Fallon Cty, MT Windpower 20 As dispatched 2008 In MRO reliability area
Goodnoe Hills Klickitat Co., WA Windpower 94 30 Apr 2008 Est. energy
Grays Harbor Satsop, WA Natural gas combined-cycle gas turbine 650 As dispatched Q1 2008 Restart of suspended project
Marengo II Columbia Co, WA Natural gas combined-cycle gas turbine 70 As dispatched Jun 2008
Recently in-service (last 12 months)
Marengo Columbia Co., WA Windpower 140 45 Aug 2007 Est. energy
Port Westward Clatskanie, OR Natural gas combined-cycle gas turbine 399 As dispatched Jun 2007  
Klondike III Wasco Co., OR Windpower 221 71 Mar 2008 Est. energy
White Creek Klickitat Co., WA Windpower 205 60 Nov 2007 Est. energy
Biglow Canyon Sherman Co, OR Windpower 125 42 Dec 2007 Est. energy
Elkhorn Union Co, OR Windpower 100 33 Dec 2007 Est. energy
Freres Lumber Lyons, OR Wood waste cogeneration 10 9 Dec 2007 Est. energy
Mint Farm Longview, WA Natural gas combined-cycle gas turbine 319 As dispatched Jan 2008 Restart of suspended project
Raft River Cassia Co. ID Geothermal 16 12 Jan 2008 Est. energy
Suspended
Emmett Emmett, ID Wood waste cogeneration 11 7 2007 At Boise Emmett mill
More detail > (~300k Excel)  
 

Power flow in and out of the region

    Updated daily
Current period: 13APR08-12MAY08
 
Intertie Avg power flow Direction
California (AC+DC) 2533 mw   export to California
Canada (BC) 851 mw   export to Canada
Total 3384 mw   export 
    This shows how much average power has been imported and exported in the last 30 days.

For more information, see Bonneville's intertie analyses

 

Additional reports

Acronyms and glossary
DSI - Direct Service Industry, like aluminum processors
intertie - high-voltage transmission lines connecting the Northwest to other regions
KCFS - thousand cubic feet per second
load - demand
MAF - million acre-feet
MW - megawatt
NMFS - National Marine Fisheries Service

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