Energy Power Supply Outlook

      
  
 

Power Supply Outlook Update

This is a snapshot of Northwest power supply and electricity demand. For more information, contact John Fazio.

October 2008 Summary: The region has ample supplies over the next five years to avoid significant power curtailments. Counting existing resources only and including about 2,200 average megawatts of uncontracted regional market supply, the annual energy surplus is forecast to be about 1,900 average megawatts by 2013. The most critical period, however, appears to be summer, due to increasing air conditioning demand and reductions in hydroelectric capability. The 2013 summer capacity surplus is estimated to be about 1,400 megawatts (it takes about 1,000 megawatts to power the city of Seattle). For more information, please see the 2008 Adequacy Assessment (330k Word).

Although the risk of a major supply shortage for the region is minimal, utilities are actively pursuing new resource and conservation acquisition for a number of reasons; to meet their own local needs, to satisfy state mandated renewable resource portfolios or to minimize dependence on market supplies. The Council is developing a regional resource acquisition strategy that will address these and other issues in its next power plan due out next year.

 
 

Regional load: actual vs. forecasts

     
 
This graph shows how closely our predictions (blue) for power supply/needs match reality (gray). The short-term forecast and actual loads both remain below the trend forecast from the 5th power plan but the gap is closing. This graph shows the difference between actual and long-term forecast on an annual basis.
   

Columbia River runoff volume forecast

    Updated biweekly between January and July
Last updated 07-08-2008
  
Figures in million acre-feet Low Avg High
Current forecast 101 
60-year history 53 107 159
    January to July runoff at the Dalles Dam is at 94% of the 30-year average from 1971-2000.

For more narrative information, see the National Weather Service Northwest River Forecast Center. For more data including runoff history, see BPA Hydrology.

  
 

Reservoir elevations and flows

    Updated daily
 
Data for
October 10
Elevation
(ft)
Normal Full
Pool (ft)
Avg Oct 10 Elevation
for last 10 years (ft)
Hungry Horse 3531.9 3561.0 3536.7
Libby 2441.2 2459.0 2437.4
Grand Coulee 1286.8 1290.0 1286.3
Dworshak 1519.8 1600.0 1518.4
courtesy of U of W's DART program

 

Data for
October 10
Daily Outflow
(kcfs)
Avg Oct 10 Outflow
for last 10 years (kcfs)
Lower Granite 24.7 20.9
The Dalles 97.3 103.1
courtesy of U of W's DART program
    The 1st table lists elevations for major U.S. reservoirs.

The 2nd table lists river flow at key Lower Snake and Columbia dams.

 
 

New Northwest generating resources

    Updated quarterly
Last updated Oct 2008

New resources either recently online or coming online soon.
See how much Northwest power comes from hydropower vs other sources.

Project Location Type Capacity (MW) Energy (MWa) Service Date Note
Under construction
Glacier Wind Energy Toole/Glacier Cty, MT Windpower 107 34 Dec 2008 Est. energy
Pebble Springs Arlington, OR Windpower 99 32 2009 Est. energy
Rattlesnake Road Gilliam Co., OR Windpower 103 33 2009 Est. energy
Simpson Tacoma Cogen Tacoma, WA Wood residue steam cogen 55 46 Aug 2009 Est. energy
Wheat Field Arlington, OR Windpower 97 28 Jun 2009 Est. energy
Willow Creek Arlington, OR Windpower 72 23 Dec 2008 Est. energy
Recently in-service (last 12 months)
Biglow Canyon Sherman Co, OR Windpower 125 42 Dec 2007 Est. energy
Danskin CT1 Mountain Home, ID Natural gas simple cycle gas turbine 170 As dispatched Jun 2008
Diamond Willow Fallon Co, MT Windpower 20 6 Jun 2008 In MRO reliability area; Est. energy
Elkhorn Union Co, OR Windpower 100 33 Dec 2007 Est. energy
Freres Lumber Lyons, OR Wood waste cogeneration 10 9 Dec 2007 Est. energy
Goodnoe Hills Klickitat Co., WA Windpower 94 30 Jun 2008 Est. energy
Grays Harbor Satsop, WA Natural gas combined-cycle gas turbine 650 As dispatched Jul 2008  
Klondike III Wasco Co., OR Windpower 221 71 Mar 2008 Est. energy
Klondike IIIA Wasco Co., OR Windpower 77 25 Sept 2008 Est. energy
Marengo II (Dayton) Columbia Co., WA Natural gas combined-cycle gas turbine 70 23 Jun 2008 Est. energy
Mint Farm Longview, WA Natural gas combined-cycle gas turbine 319 As dispatched Jan 2008 Est. energy
Raft River Cassia Co. ID Geothermal 16 12 Jan 2008 Est. energy
White Creek Klickitat Co., WA Windpower 205 60 Nov 2007 Est. energy
Suspended
Emmett Emmett, ID Wood waste cogeneration 11 7 2007 At Boise Emmett mill
More detail > (~350k Excel)  
 

Power flow in and out of the region

    Updated daily
Current period: 11SEP08-10OCT08
 
Intertie Avg power flow Direction
California (AC+DC) 2237 mw   export to California
Canada (BC) 525 mw   export to Canada
Total 2762 mw   export 
    This shows how much average power has been imported and exported in the last 30 days.

For more information, see Bonneville's intertie analyses

 

Additional reports

Acronyms and glossary
DSI - Direct Service Industry, like aluminum processors
intertie - high-voltage transmission lines connecting the Northwest to other regions
KCFS - thousand cubic feet per second
load - demand
MAF - million acre-feet
MW - megawatt
NMFS - National Marine Fisheries Service

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