This section jumps into detailed results from the High Electric Case of the transportation study. 

Information can be found here about how the model was developed and set up for case studies. Key model findings and high-level summary can be found here. Unless otherwise specified, the results shown are for the region as a whole.

The results of the three model cases were evaluated for:

  1. Fuel consumption
  2. Electrification: electric vehicle sales, stock, and demand for electricity
  3. Hydrogen demand: fuel cell vehicles and the indirect electricity requirements to produce hydrogen via electrolysis
  4. Vehicle tailpipe emissions[1]

An additional dataset with results for this case is available TPT_ModelResults_HiElectric_Case.xlsx

Roadway Transportation Mode Categories

Category NameDescriptionWeight
LDVLight duty vehicles such as passenger cars, mini vans, sport utility vans, and small pickup trucks< 8,500 lbs.
HDV LightCommercial light trucks, Class 28,500 to 10,000 lbs.
HDV MedLarger trucks, Class 3 through 610,000 to 26,000 lbs.
HDV HeavyFreight trucks, Class 7 and higher> 26,000 lbs.
BusTransit and School 

Transportation Vehicle Fuel Options

FuelLDVHDV LightHDV MedHDV HeavyBus
Natural GasX   X
Direct ElectricityXX[2]  X
Hydrogen  X[3]X[3] 

The High Electric Case forces a more aggressive transition to electric vehicles in the LDV category, along with more electric buses, and an initial turn toward electrification of the HDV Light category (such as delivery trucks and vans).

Fuel Consumption

Consistent with the Reference Case, much of the roadway transportation in the region is powered by petroleum-based fuels at the start of the time horizon. However, with electrification, the fuel consumption of petroleum products declines by 9%. Most of the drop is coming from LDV gasoline use, which declines by 40%. Diesel-fuel use still grows substantially due to the HDV categories dependance on diesel.

Annual Fuel Consumption – High Electric Case

GasolineMillion Gallons5,4365,3994,9734,3793,7743,256
DieselMillion Gallons2,5782,7933,0383,3253,6494,053
Natural GasTbtu353635322824
Direct ElectricityGWh5552,91010,91721,68533,03643,396
HydrogenkTonne H2000000


For this case, sales of electric vehicles in the LDV category are modeled to increase along a much steeper trajectory than the Reference Case, especially for the states of Oregon and Washington which may be influenced by state policy regarding electric vehicles. The following tables display the percent of sales and stock that are electric for the case.

Market Share of Electric Vehicle Sales in LDV Category - High Electric Case

RegionMarket Share202020252030203520402045
ID% Sales Electric1.36.930.071.894.099.7
MT% Sales Electric2.010.640.780.496.099.5
OR% Sales Electric5.837.386.299.799.799.7
WA% Sales Electric6.439.699.799.799.799.7
Total% Sales Electric5.333.083.494.598.699.6

Percent of Electric Vehicle Stock in LDV Category - High Electric Case

RegionMarket Share202020252030203520402045
ID% Stock Electric0.20.94.514.929.843.6
MT% Stock Electric0.21.15.616.429.741.7
OR% Stock Electric0.94.817.132.044.554.5
WA% Stock Electric0.95.119.435.047.357.1
Total% Stock Electric0.84.315.930.443.153.7

The next two figures show annual units of electric vehicle sales and stock, by state for the LDV category.

Annual LDV Electric Vehicle Sales by State – High Electric Case

Annual LDV Electric Vehicle Stock by State – High Electric Case

In the HDV Light category, gasoline and diesel are the primary fuels for moving goods at the beginning of the time horizon.  Direct electric transport is modeled to be phased in over time and replaces the goods moved with petroleum-based fuels. 

Percentage of Vehicle Ton-Miles Traveled by Fuel Type HDV Light – High Electric Case


The direct electrification of transportation is spread across three vehicle categories, but much of the demand for electricity remains concentrated in the LDV category.

Annual Electricity Demand by Category – High Electric Case

HDV LightGWh071048063,0385,774

Annual Electricity Demand by State – High Electric Case


Annual LDV Electric Vehicle Electricity Demand by State – High Electric Case

Tailpipe Emissions

With the additional electrification reducing petroleum fuel use, the overall roadway emissions decline be 5.5% over the 25-year study horizon. The emissions are pushed down in the LDV and HDV Light categories, making the HDV Med and Heavy categories stand out again as far as emissions and a lack of non-emitting fuel sources to run the vehicles.

The average annual emission growth rates are shown in Figure 11, and the following two figures display the emission results by state and vehicle category.

Average Annual Emission Growth Rate by Category – High Electric Case

Annual Vehicle Tailpipe Emissions by State – High Electric Case

Annual Vehicle Tailpipe Emissions by Category – High Electric Case

[1] Note: the indirect emissions from power generation related to electric vehicle demand are not included in this study but are included in other downstream power planning models

[2] High Electric & H2E Case only

[3] H2E Case only